Politics

Bush lost Iowa in 2000 by fewer than 5,000 votes. But the latest Iowa Poll says that Bush would win a rematch by a landslide, 64 to 27. I really would love to know what Gore (and his operatives) are thinking when they see reports like this. Probably they're going to hope that his ratings are similar to Bush I's high ratings, i.e., not lasting. Such hopes do not make for good campaigns. These guys are hurting. In the meantime, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) in running into some trouble in trying to become the governor of Maryland. It seems she has antagonized her black constituents by not picking a black running mate (whereas the GOP candidate is running with a black man). Watch her start to mend her fences.

In Michigan the most interesting primary race is between John Dingell, running for his 24th term (he is the most senior member of the House of Representatives, and, by the way, arguably the meanest and nastiest) and Lynn Rivers, running for her 4th term. Because of re-districting they are forced to run against one another. The primary is August 6th and Dingell is beginning to hurt. In some polls he leads by only four points, and never more than by ten. This is his only seriously contested race, ever. He has a lot more money than she (mostly from PACs and Washington) while her financial support is local. There are more sophisticated and well educated liberals in the district, fewer blue collar voters, fewer auto industry interests, and a lot more technology, medicine and science interests; and Dingell has never gotten along with these people. Furthermore, Dingell has always been anti-Israeli (one of only 21 members of the House to vote against the May 2 solidarity with Israel resolution) and the new district has a lot more Jewish voters and loses many Arabs. Interestingly, Republican Governor John Engler has endorsed Dingell as have all the unions. Because Dingell is essentially running defense, I think Rivers might pull it off. Why do I sound pleased at this prospect, especially considering that in many ways Rivers is more liberal? He is too mean spirited. Besides, I remember when I was in Washington he was one of a handful of Congressmen who couldn't get a security clearance. And I don't trust him.

Mark Steyn has a clear-eyed piece in the London Telegraph about how the Democrats will not succeed in using this latest "crisis" against Bush and the GOP. By the way, rumor has it (see the buried note in the Washington Post, about half-way down) that Gephardt will run for the Democratic nomination even if the Democrats take back the House (which they won't) and will run on this theme, thereby moving the party even further to the left (to the disadvantage of all those in the party who want to move toward the center). I hope he does run as a left-wing anti-corporate anti-capitalist populist. That would be fun.

Note that the grilling that Secretary of the Army Thomas White was supposed to take last week in the hearings regarding his involvement in the California energy crisis last summer (when he was with Enron) amounted to nothing. Only a few press stories reported it accurately and fully. Enclosed is one from the Sacramento Bee ("there was nothing linking White with the energy crisis") and Business Week. Will the Democrats be able to take advantage of the corporate scandal? Not if this is the best the Democrats can do. There is no way they can get up to (as Gephardt put it) 40 seats in the House in November.

Iraq

This is a very good and clear piece by John Keegan, the Brit military historian, on both why and how the U.S. will make war on Iraq "within the next six months." He carefully lays out what alliances are necessary (and what aren't), what bases are necessary, why it is easier to invade from the north, why Turkey is the linchpin, and so on. In his estimation it will be a no contest.

The Economist (London) is picking up on the idea that there could something to the idea that the Hashemites may be, once again, interested in becoming the rulers of Iraq; they were overthrown in 1958. This is complex and Machiavellian to say the least and that's why it is worth watching.

This report from an Israeli paper claims that according to French sources the U.S. will attack Iraq in August. This is all very complicated. There is much disinformation from our side, out of necessity: they know we will attack, so the element of surprise is gone, yet they don't know exactly when we will begin the attack. So it is in our interest to say (which we more or less have allowed to be said publicly) that we are not likely to attack until next spring. All the recent reports have been claiming 1) we need more time to build up of up 200,000 men, 2) we need more time to restock munitions, 3) we need more time to deal with our allies in the area (Jordan, for example) and 4) we need more time to move some necessary munitions and communications equipment to Qatar from Saudi Arabia. Well, it seems to me that those four conditions are met (the build-up of 200,000 is a ruse, in my opinion; we need not have that many men in place to begin). So an attack in August is plausible. Yet, note this article from the London Telegraph saying that the Brits are planning to call up reserves in September. And consider Stephen Hayes' recounting of the decision to have a "regime change" and how it was played out in the press. It is a done deal. The only question is, when?

War and Agriculture

This is another fine piece of writing from Victor Davis Hanson. He reconstructs his family's war against weeds. Johnsongrass, holcus helepensis, could not be eradicated from the vineyard until it was discovered that if you spray a certain chemical on the leaves which the weed would then absorb all the way to the roots and it would finally die. It was a difficult investment, but worth the trouble in the long run. It is clever writing and shows the difficulty of the problem.

Voice of America to Middle East

This is a good brief story by John Hughes outlining the effect that Radio Sawa (means "together" in Arabic) is having on young people (where 60% of the population is under 30) in the Middle East. This is a new project of Voice of America and is good news. It sounds like there are smart people running the Voice. I hope they keep it up and expand it. I also include the VOA web site and the Radio Sawa web site.

George Washington

A number of readers have pointed out that two weeks ago when I mentioned the PBS showing of "Rediscovering George Washington" I failed to mention the excellent web site that goes along with the production. The site was produced by The Claremont Institute. It is full of good information and sound analysis. Work your way through it. It is excellent.

Second Amendment

Here is the letter sent by eighteen state attorneys-general (twelve Republicans, six Democrats) to Attorney-General John Ashcroft supporting the Justice Department's view that the Second Amendment confers on individuals the right to bear arms. (You need Adobe Acrobat to open).

Gen. Benjamin O. Davis Buried at Arlington

General Benjamin O. Davis, Jr. died at age 89, appropriately, on the Fourth of July. He was buried with full military honors at Arlington. In 1942 he became the commander of the 99th Pursuit Squadron (the first all-black air unit) based out of Tuskegee, Alabama. He was an admirable man, a patriot, full of the virtues that self-governing men need, and prospered under the most difficult circumstances. He became the first black general in the Air Force (his father, Benjamin O. Davis, Sr., was the first black man to become a general in the U.S. Army, by the way). Here is the story of the burial from the Washington Post, and then his biography in brief. Also this article by John H. McWhorter (professor of linguistics, U.C. Berkeley) is a good read on why so called black leadership—say, Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson—is not needed by blacks any more than Asians or Italians need leaders. It's people like Star Parker in L.A. and Eugene Rivers in Boston that are going to transform the culture to allow poor inner-city blacks to take advantage of opportunities opne to them. One of those rare explicitly favorable references to Booker T. Washington may be found here, by the way.

Children of Israel in India

This is an amazing story from The Times of India. The mystery of the world's most obscure Jewish community may have been solved with genetic carbon dating. Legend has it that Jews fleeing persecution in Palestine fled in 175 BC, and seven men and seven women survived a shipwreck in India. By 1964 the Bene Israelis were declared to be officially Jewish. This study now claims to prove that not only are these people Jewish, but are the descendants of a small group of hereditary Israelite priests who are genetically related in a distinct fashion to Aaron, Moses' elder brother. Professor Tudor Parfitt of the University of London conducted the research.

Objecting to 'Indivisible' in the Pledge

Something called the League of the South is agreeing with the 9th Circuit decision regarding the Pledge of Allegiance but on different grounds. It is not objecting to "God" in the Pledge of Allegiance, but to the words "one nation indivisible". We are really a "republic of republics"; something like a treaty organization, for example NATO, etc. Lincoln called this kind of reasoning an "ingenous sophism" and the principle of anarchy. Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, and Webster, all agree that secession is not constitutional. I include Lincoln's speech to Congress in special session, July 4, 1861, Andrew Jackson's "Proclamation to the People of South Carolina" on Dec 10, 1832, as well as Mac Owens' excellent article "The Case Against Secession" which originally appeared in the July 22, edition of The Washington Times. I recommend the Owens article. It is comprehensive, true, and relatively short.

Democratic Party One-Minute Speechmaker
This is a very clever page on how to make a one-minute speech if you are a Democrat. I don't know who put it out, but it is true to form and useful. Have a look.

Clinton's Trailer
A number of commentators have pointed out that the latest artist rendition of the Clinton Presidential Center looks like a trailer! I enclose the photo and the site. Please note the references to the seventh bridge and how it engages the six other bridges in a dialogue. At first I thought this was a joke. I guess not.

Past Editions: July 18, 2002 | July 11, 2002 | July 3, 2002 | June 27, 2002 | June 20, 2002 | June 13, 2002 | June 6, 2002 | May 30, 2002 | May 23, 2002 | May 9, 2002 | May 2, 2002 | April 25, 2002